All this time, we only discuss the inflation rate. We care about inflation because it can affect the value of our money. Inflation can reduce the real value of money and also our buying power along the time. This is the reason why it can affect our financial planning and also our retirement. For example,  if you are putting your retirement money in a saving account at 3% interest rate, but the inflation rate is 3% on average, then your money is going no way but remain at the same value in future. This won’t help you if you want a better retirement life. Therefore, we must invest our money in the matter that can generate average returns greater than inflation rate. This is why we must pay attention on inflation and change our financial planning accordingly so that it won’t eat up all our money.

Today the market is different. All this time we are having the positive value in inflation rate. But according to some economists and statistic reports, negative figure of inflation is happening. Negative inflation is what we usually call deflation. Again, this is another factors that can affect our retirement and financial future. We should not take this easy instead we must understand it and change our plan accordingly.

What is Deflation?

Deflation, also called Disinflation, is the opposite meaning of inflation. While Inflation drops the value of our money and increase the price of goods, deflation increase our money’s value and decrease the price of the goods. Therefore you might see the “price dropping” trend happens around the market in deflationary period.

Deflation is a decline in general price level that often caused by a combination of four factors:

1. The supply of goods goes up.
2. Demand for goods goes down.
3. The supply of money goes down.
4. Demand for money goes up.

Understand The Theory of Supply and Demand

In order to fully understand how supply and demand on money and goods will affect our market, following are some of the example that I would like to give:

For factor 1, the supply of goods goes up, let assumes that we usually spend $10 to buy product A. The ratio between the money’s value and goods’ prices are always remained at the same level.

Deflation happens if the supply of product A goes up. For example, we can use technology to double the production speed of product A. At this moment, if the supply of money is maintained at a certain level, then the supply of product A will be overflowing. Sellers have no choice but have to drop the price so that selling speed of product A can be maintained. This is why deflation happens.

This is a good deflation as the price of goods drop because of high production. This can increase the GDP rate and provide even more job opportunities to the market because those factories will demand a lot of labors for their productions At the same time, consumers have their jobs and they can continue to buy product A again and again. In a nutshell, the business cycle is not affected here.

Deflation happens too if the supply of money goes down. Fed’s decision on interest rate will determine the supply of money and how wealthy people is. If Fed raises the interest rate, less money will be pushed out to the market and hence lower down consumers’ wealth. Consumers will become less interested to spend money and hence drop the demands on product A. Guess what, deflation happens again as sellers have to drop the price in order to push the selling

Above is an example of bad deflation. This is because the business cycle is being affected.  When the sales of product A drop, the retailers and manufacturers will be greatly affected. In order to maintain their business, they may cut jobs and big layoff will happen. The problems will go back to consumers because they lost their jobs and become more demand on their money rather than spend it. Therefore, another chain effect happens that can let our economy down.

Guess what, bad deflation happens!

However, if something bad happens to the market such as recession, spending confidence of consumers will be greatly affected too. People will save their money rather than spend it. The demand for money goes up. Since people will not exchange their money for any goods, then the demand for product A goes down. Bad deflation also happens.

If we look back to the history, deflation always happen due to the high supply in goods(increased productivity) without the increasing on the supply for money. One of the biggest deflation that caused Great depression happens in Japan in the early year 1990 where the demand for goods and supply for money are low. It was the worst economic scenario that no body wishes to happen.

The Negative Effect from Deflation, Even Good Deflation

Some people thought that deflation is a good thing since the price of goods are trending down and they can buy some cheap stuff. However, in most cases, many economists and experts are worry about deflation because of its negative impact on our money.

Like what I said, if deflation happens because the increasing of the goods production and make their price drop accordingly, this is a good deflation. However, deflation cannot happen for too long because it can generate massive of negative effect on the market. This is why our board of Fed uses the Interest rate system to control the market’s inflation and avoid the deflation.

The primary effect of deflation is that it can affect consumers’ buying decision. If all the goods drop in price continuously, consumers can feel the trend and delay their spending so that they can get the goods for a better price in the future. This is another starting point for the chain effects on the economy. If the products sales drop, business will slow down and eventually great layoff will happen and hence making consumers increase their demands on the money.

Besides that, if the price drops continuously, eventually companies cannot afford the low price and they have to cut off their employees in order to cut their business operating costs. Again, this will affect the business cycle and hence start the bad economy chain effect.
What You must Prepare for Deflation

Today, we can see that deflation is happening in the market. According to the latest article from Business Week Magazine, consumer prices in U.S. fell nearly 13% in the last three months of 2008. This includes all sorts of goods, ranging from clothing to electronic products.

Deflation for this time has the negative impact on our economy. We are currently having a big recession period and deflation for this time is happening due to the over supply of goods to the market. This is nothing to do with the high production but because of the low demands of people on to the products. Unemployment is getting higher each week and big layoff happens in most big corporations. This greatly decrease the confidence of consumers to the market and they are not willing to spend money. All the business are being affected because of this and this has caused deflation.

So the most important things for us to do now is spend our money more wisely. We cannot assume that deflation will happen forever. So we must buy something that is valuable for us if possible at this time. A lot of great deals are available at this time.

If you want to do some investment, maybe now or sometime later will be a good timing for you to buy assets such as properties, stocks, bonds etc. Deflation will affect the price of those assets and if you have extra cash on hands, you can buy them to build wealth for your portfolio.

If you don’t have extra cash, now maybe is time for you to save up some money on hands. Deflation reduces the price of goods and your expenses should be reduced too. Just remain your lifestyle, spend the same amount of expenses and you can save up some money for your account.

No matter what happen to the market, the basic of personal finance is spend less than you make, save the extra and invest it. This is the basic step to gain wealth and financial freedom. You don’t have to make everything complicated, keep them simple and you can take action easily.

Good Luck!

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